Model blog 9

Ode to modeling
by james

Models, Models
How do I love thee?
I just cannot see
The more I search, the more I fall so deeply
for your methodology

This love I speak of it can't be erotic
I am married, and plus loving you that way would just be illogic
No! we are much deeper you and I,
down to the core,
problems we simplify.

Sometimes I wonder if you'd love me back.
But it is then that I think about blogging instead of hitting the sack.
It seems that I often lie awake pondering what to type.
until I scan the Google top ten list on business models in honolulu or some other foreign land
on which I may write.

I can not say we will last,
for there is but one day more,
that I should live search this class
or knock on Jeeves' door.

The greater question is this:
Will you hold me together
like staples or sutures
when I must design a system
way out in the distant future.

The End


eh-hem, and now to fulfill the requirement of this assignment:

Data to be put into this model:

love, affection, endearment.

Bayesian Decision Theory Blog 8

While surfing the interweb I came across this "normative approach" to decision making.

The Bayesian theory is pretty basic and is as follows:

1. Define a set of available actions
2. Define a set possible outcome of acts
3. Define a conditional probability distribution specifying the probability of each outcome given each available act.
4. Define a preference order ranking the possible outcomes distributions according to the desirability

The formulation of these definitions is really nothing more than a series of weighted averages that, in essence provide the user with the best decision possible.

This theory leaves presumes quite a bit. It presumes that there must be a defined amount of decision variable. In reality, there is not always a 0 to 100 percent probability of a course of action occurring. Sometimes the course of action is dependent upon other variable and are not up to chance.

Models are imperative to the decision making process, but oversimplification can be dangerous.

Blog Number 7 - Linear Programming

Much of Operations Management involves problem solving abilities. One way to solve problems is by using Excel's Linear Programming to minimize cost or maximize profits.

It is relatively simple to input the data then run the program. The majority of the problems occur when it is time to call on the limiting criteria.

It is very important to first model the criteria before typing it in manuscript form to Excel.

One important factor contributing to a decision model's success is the thought process behind its formulation and how well the manager uses the marketing-mix variables to formulate the model. It's important to focus on the actual problem at hand and then formulate the model with the variables directly related to the problem. Otherwise, implementation errors are inevitable.

Case in point, the problems with linear programming do not lie in the technology, for there will always be an algorithm for every query. However, if the formulation is off even a little bit, the result could be malicious.

Behavioral Finance

For decades businessmen have sought to understand and predict what the stock market is going to do. They have traced it back through countless spreadsheets and business models and have arrived at a conclusion: Consumer decisions drive the sauces and failure of our economy, all other things held constant.... ie government, acts of God, ect.

Thus was born the study of Behavioral Finance, the study of why we buy what we be. Moreover, it is the study of how we make financial decisions. Now, one may be tempted to retort, "James you're crazy, people simply make decision that will help themselves. They choose the choice that makes them most happy." Well, I am sorry dear friend but this train of thought is flawed.

I can not count how many packs of basketball cards I bought looking for that one Jordan rookie card... Or what about the classic women who buys a dress she will only wear once... maybe... if she feels like it. The fact is we people act irrationally, especially when deciding what to do with our money.

This principle is also present in the stock market. Investors, well educated ones mind you, make "gut" decisions that may pay off or may not. It is an emotional decision that is based on tens, hundreds, or thousands of variables that are weighed against each other subconscously yielding our rational or irrational decision.

Behavioral Finance reminds me of the Human Genome Project in the sense of the mountains of data that must be considered. Emotions such as love and fear have a lot to do with why we decide what we decide. Now if we can design a system that could predict what we would decide, is that even a DSS anymore? Have we just broken the barrier and enter the AI arena? Maybe not.

Decision Support Systems are designed to take into account the users disposition. the greater the accuracy of that measure of disposition, the more efficient the DSS will be. Therefore Behavioral Finance and DSS implementation are extremely related and in fact as the Finance decisions become more researched, it will depend on DSS's for its existence.

WalMart people are crazy

First watch this video





How about this for a business model:

1. Video tape Walmart getting crunk at a manager's get-away
2. Try and sell tapes back to Walmart
3. In the case that Walmart won't buy; make fun of them on MSNBC
4. Use the puplicity to launch opporation: Walmart footage rental
   

For years a small Kansas based video-taping service, Flagler, were contracted by Walmart to record their executive confrences. The firm's representative said that there is "priceless footage of Sam Walton speaking on the business stratagies. " One must wonder if the footage of Sam Walton is priceless what does that make the footage of the Managerial Drag Show?!?

Well here are the prices:
Internal use, non-exclusive - $300/minute
Exclusive use broadcast for 6 months - $7500
Non-exclusive 6 months: 1500/minute

What I enjoy least about this whole shananagan is the fact that a man in Jeans and a Black polo, with scruffy stubble and a half grown mullet can end up on national television... but thats another story.

Match.com

Before class tonight I had never explored a Web Dating Service. Of course I had heard the advertisements every now and then on TV of the millions of users who found their soul-mates through their web based date matching service. It occurred to me that Match.com really is an elaborate DSS!

The question, who am I compatible with, is one that has weighed heavily on the thirty year-olds of our nation. But unlike Managerial DSS' whose main concern is maximizing profitability, quality, efficiency and so on, Match.com's has not only to find compatible partners, but also make the user believe that the Web Site is trustworthy.

The opening page has this chick whose face looks very friendly. There are only a few blanks to be filled. No membership adds, no prices, just a few blanks to fill in some of your general info.

"I am a woman, looking for a man of the age 20 to 25, near 63974 zip code."

If the user gets this far than they are probably hooked. The criteria brings up a bunch of pictures of men who are in the market for like 3 seconds (to short to even read a name) but the a pop-up pops up and asks you to register... if you do then you are brought to an ENORMOUS we are talking about 223 check boxes that when checked correctly resemble very closely, your life. (or at least the life you think they want to see)

Is 223 descriptions really necessary? maybe. They claim to have 20 million members so perhaps a criteria of that amount is necessary. But I think it is more than that. I think that it is a psych tool to generate trust in the system. "This DSS truly understand me therefore it must be the best in the entire world!"

I got a kick out of their Platinum package. You can actually hire a professional matchmaker who will "weed through" all the potentials and hand pick the one who is the best choice.

Call me old fashioned, lucky, or whatever, but when I first became attracted to my wife when I was seventeen years old I simply held her hand in a scary movie... the rest was a breeze.

I already know what I am going to write on next time. "20 questions to find out if you are truly in love" Cosmo Magazine. just kidding

I HATE FOX NEWS

I have gotten into the habit of watching the news every night the past couple weeks. It seems like the CNN and Fox News compete to see which can spin their agendas more. As for the Rev. Wright issue goes, it seems as if MSNBC as been the only station that has really analized the success or failure of the speach. Fox only talks about the failure. (Greta needs to contract something dreadful) While CNN regard Obama as an Ubbermiench who can do no wrong.

Enough of my rant on mainstream news and on to the task at hand. Newsweek has a really cool delgate model:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/68123

I like this model because of it's user friendly interface. the javascript is pretty cool here. With the mouse-over coding and such, it works really well.
It has bar graphs followed by a GIS followed by a timeline showing when the next elections occure.

The only thing that confuses me is why Hilary got the points for Michigan and Florida. Did I miss something???

Magically moral models that makes malpractice most maliscous

While presenting about Monsato's Hyperion planning system, business ethics came into the discussion. So that got me thinking about how to incorporate morality into a business model.

First, the assumptions:

1. The word "morality" is defined as: The quality of being in accord with standards of right or good conduct. - American Heritage.
2. Businesses should place morality at a higher priority than profit, regardless of how much profit or loss is cause by morality
3. Assumptions one and two are absolute and are not allowed to be argued.

That said, practical applications of factors could be included into decision support systems. Environmental factors such as emissions or bi-products are completely quantitative and therefore can be monitored. Employment benefit packages and rewards systems can also be measured and recorded. There are many different qualities that can be added to a DSS and have ethical basis.

The question purposed earlier this evening about the poor, third-world farmer who loses his life's savings because of one bad season becomes much more complicated. I am still trying to figure out morality's role in this situation. Perhaps it is my version of the made up story...

• Monsanto markets globally, even to third world countries
• Poor farmer in third world country, cashes out all assets in order to purchase enhanced seeds to plant.
• Monsanto quotes sale of however many bags of seed.
• Farmer agrees and purchases.
• Drought occurs and farmland is wasted by an "act of God."
• Farmer loses everything.
• Monsanto markets farmer again on the next season.
• Farmer dies of starvation

This is how the story played out in my head. Monsanto's decision to market globally does not seem to be any more ethically wrong than a billboard advertising Limo service in rural Montana. A waste of resources may be a more accurate description.

The immoral decision occurred when the farmer decided to put all his eggs in one basket! Is it Monsanto's obligation to insure against acts of God? Agriculture is an extremely risky business, which is why we have farmers insurance.

Let's assume that Monsanto is guilty, think of how that would affect sales. "I'm sorry I can't sell to you. Well, uh your land has a bad record. You see there was a flood back in 1993 that basically wiped out your entire estate. Yes sir, I understand you own some of the most nutrient soil in the world, but when you combine the risk of another flood with the fragility of the market, I just can't sign off on this sale."

Now that seems more immoral than the alternative. It also sounds as if someone outside of the market is deciding the demand within it. To be perfectly idealistic and humanistic about it (of which I have the right, being 21) that is the most dangerous thing you can do to a market. Demand must be decided by the consumer, not any other entity.

But of course we must have our big government because people are not smart enough to make there own decisions....

Oh boy I can't wait for a response.

forever yours,

James

Google's Business Model

I chose to blog about Google's Business Model because it is much different than most hypertext search engine company's philosophies. Like everyone else, Google is advertisement based. Yet they place value on Customer satisfaction more than others. The Google engine was built with the destination's importance rating in mind. This is somewhat contradictory to what the advertisers want mainly because the advertisers are only interested in a number of hits on a site. So Google is put in an awkward situation were they must choose between what their users want and what their customers want.
Their Model must be one that is based on a quality outside of the mere customer satisfaction realm. They had to develop and implement something that would solve the ethical question of "who the heck to we please?"
The PageRank algorithm was developed in order to do just that. It works so that people who are trying to sell something are categorized in their yellow box at the top, and everyone else (with their respective importance rating) is displayed below. But of course the programmers at the internet stores refused to be bested by a Business Model. Therefore they devised ways to get their websites in the top 10 sites without paying a penny.

1998 if you were to google "cell phones" one of the top sites was "The Effect of Cellular Phone Use Upon Driver Attention". Nowadays, of the first 20 sites, 14 involve sales. So much for that business model... noble thought though.

Is this really working????

I can't believe I am actually blogging! If this works, a celebration is in order.

Apparently in this purely free environment anything is possible. I can talk about ANYTHING. I suppose I should start with Modeling